There Are No Core U.S. National Interests at Stake in Ukraine

by | Jul 12, 2022

Ordinary Americans can be forgiven for thinking Ukraine must be especially meaningful for U.S. foreign policy.

by William Ruger

July 9, 2022 Topic: Russia-Ukraine War Region: Europe

Tags: Russia-Ukraine WarRealismBalance Of PowerRussian Invasion Of UkrainePrimacy

SOMEBODY HAS to say it: the war in Ukraine does not materially affect the permanent national interests of the United States or the geopolitical landscape in which we advance those interests. This conclusion—for good or bad or anywhere in-between—shouldn’t significantly impact the future of U.S. foreign policy. The war may tug on our heartstrings for sure, but it should not dissuade us from making the necessary changes to our grand strategy that position our country for long-run success, like our recent withdrawal from Afghanistan. These changes include increasing our focus on China as our most important strategic competitor, extricating ourselves from Europe and the Middle East, and emphasizing domestic renewal over ostensible altruism abroad.

However, there are important lessons for the future of U.S. foreign policy that can be learned from the conflict, especially regarding the offense-defense balance and Russia’s revealed conventional capability. But these aren’t the ones that you’ll hear from the foreign policy establishment, which will always spin positive outcomes or trouble overseas as reasons to redouble our commitment to the primacist status quo they favor.

Heads, I win; tails, you lose.

Ordinary Americans can be forgiven for thinking Ukraine must be especially meaningful for U.S. foreign policy. As the war unfolded, they could see red ink signifying Russian forces spreading across the map of Ukraine as Vladimir Putin’s aggression threatened Kyiv and other parts of the country. Prompted by hawkish commentators, they worried about whether Russia would stop at the western border. Daily, they were treated to intense battlefield videos of the most devastating war in Europe since World War II, some showing the cruelty of Russian soldiers while others the heroism of Ukrainian patriots.

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